Microsoft’s Next Surface Might Tap AMD Hardware

A new book by Brad Sams, Beneath A Surface, details the history and development of Microsoft’s Surface product portfolio, starting from the early days when a massive Surface RT writedown nearly killed the product line altogether to the current era. It also contains some intriguing hints about what might be next for the family.

Sams’ book details plans for a Surface Studio monitor with modular components — it’s not clear exactly how this would work — as well as a supposedly larger form factor for the small “Andromeda” device that’s been rumored for years now, according to The Verge. But the most interesting news is a rumor of a new Surface system powered by AMD hardware instead of Intel.

The question of whether Microsoft would make this kind of bet on AMD is an interesting one. On the one hand, Ryzen Mobile has been the stepchild of AMD’s overall Ryzen efforts. As a recent Tom’s Hardware story notes, AMD customers are unhappy about the fact that GPU drivers on Ryzen Mobile haven’t been updated in over a year. That’s unheard of on the desktop side of things, and while AMD’s basic response has been to blame OEMs to date, it also claims it will work with companies like Dell and HP to encourage them to release cards more frequently. Still, mobile doesn’t seem to have been a major priority for AMD in the past 12 months. Mobile Vega has barely tipped up (and really only in the context of Apple), while the last laptop news we’ve heard suggests AMD’s share in that market is still firmly in single-digit territory. To some extent this may simply reflect company priorities — with multiple markets to choose from, Lisa Su may have decided the overlap between desktop and server made the most sense to focus on.

Still, there may be some genuine opportunity for AMD and Microsoft. At least one product in the Surface lineup, the Surface Book, suffers from significant hardware throttling under sustained load based on recent tests conducted by HotTech Vision and Analysis. If AMD’s 7nm chips offer Microsoft a chance to dodge that problem, it’s possible the company could pick up business.

A deal with AMD would be a significant win for the smaller manufacturer, but there are practical reasons to be dubious of this happening. Even if AMD’s 7nm mobile products are the equal of Intel’s, Microsoft might have concerns about whether AMD will continue to deliver long-term mobile follow-ups for the foreseeable future. A strong 7nm ramp would probably help here, but between the two firms, Intel has the more consistent track record.

The other factor to consider is that Microsoft has historically been quite willing to bend when Intel applies pressure. There are consistent rumors that the Surface Go was originally going to be based on ARM hardware until Intel strenuously lobbied for the system to rely on a Pentium instead. During the old Vista Capable lawsuits from a decade ago, Microsoft acknowledged that it changed the definition of “Vista Capable” solely to help Intel ship more chipsets and make its quarterly earnings, despite the fact that this represented a reversal of promises Microsoft had made to HP regarding which products would receive the nod for Vista support.

The old Wintel alliance may have some cracks in it compared with the old days, but it’s still held remarkably steady based on what we’ve heard about Intel-Microsoft relations. Rumors to the contrary could also be a way for Microsoft to put pressure on Intel and push for better pricing or allocation in future builds.

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