Analyst: Most Metaverse Projects Will Go Out of Business by 2025

Ball shared his thought process at Canalys’ 2022 Channels Forum in Barcelona, according to a new report from The Register. Addressing whether the metaverse could be considered “the next digital frontier” or “an overhyped money pit,” Ball said Meta’s convoluted project—and all its somewhat pitiful snags—can be considered a barometer for the metaverse’s success as a whole. He went on to say he believes most metaverse projects will have closed by 2025.

Ball’s analysis is in direct contrast with a prediction recently cited by Interpol, in which market research firm Gartner said a quarter of Americans will spend at least one hour in the metaverse per day by 2026. Meta itself has an even loftier hunch: Zuckerberg said earlier this year that he expects one billion people to be in the metaverse by 2030.

But from outside of the metaverse development space, it’s far easier to understand Ball’s gloomy prediction. Despite investing billions in the platform, Meta (by and large the biggest player in the metaverse space) has had a tough time getting its version of the metaverse onto its feet. Most have heard by now that Meta has to force its own employees to use its flagship metaverse product, Horizon Worlds. Meta employees’ hesitance to use Horizon Worlds at work makes sense, given recent confirmation that working in the metaverse totally sucks.

Some big-name tech founders have rather explicitly (in more ways than one) dismissed the metaverse, saying it’s a disappointing product that eats up resources that could be used to fix real, existing problems—not just gratuitously create new ones. That aligns with Ball’s point regarding accessibility: In the midst of a cost-of-living crisis, few people are interested in or able to invest hundreds (if not thousands) of dollars in virtual spaces like the metaverse. “People are struggling in the real world, let alone in the virtual world, to be able to invest in property and items and other NFTs,” Ball said.

An undertaking as large and convoluted as the metaverse takes a lot of faith to pursue. Meta, along with tech giants like Microsoft, Apple, and Google, appear to be capable of sustaining that faith for now, even if it’s just to prove their recent investments have been worth it. If Ball is on the right track, it’ll only be a few more years before we find out whether that’s actually the case.

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